Finance types can't stop talking about Citrini Research's "Analyst #3" and what the firm says was a wild trip to the Strait of Hormuz.
Wall Street's denizens and market watchers across the globe rushed to X to commend the intrepid analyst with memes, GIFs, and kudos-filled posts.
Citrini's field report said that its analyst, who it says is fluent in four languages, traveled to the shipping channel at the heart of the US-Iran conflict with "a Pelican case full of equipment, a pack of Cuban cigars, $15,000 in cash and a roll of Zyn."
Analyst #3 wrote that he snuck recording equipment into Oman, faced questioning from border officials, intelligence agents, and the coast guard, and swam in the Strait of Hormuz with a cigar in his mouth and Iranian drones flying overhead.
Citrini included a disclaimer in its research note, saying that some names and details had been changed to "protect the safety of anonymous sources" and that quotes were based on the analyst's memory of conversations he had in Arabic.
The firm described this as "the best we could do from an accuracy standpoint," noting that the analyst's phone, which contained notes and photos from the trip, was held by authorities in Oman.
The analyst reported that there were significantly more vessels passing through the strait than tracking platforms show, and said the situation was closer to a "toll road" than a "blockade," with Iran demanding that every vessel secure its approval to pass through safely.
Citrini Research rose to prominence for betting against Silicon Valley Bank before the lender collapsed in early 2023 and helped trigger a regional-banking crisis. It also rattled markets this February when it warned AI could crash the stock market and spark a recession.
Roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows travel through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a key shipping channel for world energy markets and a major contributor to economic growth.
But traffic has plummeted since the breakout of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, as captains fear being struck by an Iranian drone, blasted by an underwater mine, or hit by a missile launched from the coast or a passing speedboat.
The disruptions have lit a fire under energy prices, stoking renewed fears of inflation and recession. Analyst #3's audacious decision to visit the contested waterway in the middle of a full-blown war has clearly impressed finance professionals, who've compared him to James Bond, Mission: Impossible's Ethan Hunt, and even the bumbling Johnny English.
Michael Burry, the investor of "The Big Short" fame, hailed Citrini's on-the-ground coverage on his Substack, describing it as "remarkable stuff."
